Protecting the property market or the real economy?Central media voice, the country to make a choice, housing price trend has been clear

2022-07-12 0 By

Ma Guangyuan once said: “Real estate is China’s pillar industry, will not change in 100 years, because you have not tasted it will not know how delicious.”From this sentence, we can see that Ma Guangyuan believes that the real estate industry will always be the pillar industry of China, which is related to the lifeblood of China’s economy.Not only Ma Guangyuan thinks so, but many experts share the same view. For example, Dong Pan, a professor at Beijing Normal University, thinks:If we are not able to clear about the status of the real estate industry in the national economy, there was no way to treat the industry correctly, there would be no way to return to its policy relatively optimistic and scientific orbit, real estate development, trading order will not be able to straighten out, GDP growth, employment and revenue cannot ascend, do not save the property market China’s economy can’t walk out of the dilemma.So why do these experts support the real estate industry and think that only the normal development of the real estate industry can China’s economy be stable?Because in the past 20 years, the rapid development of the real estate industry has indeed played an indelible role in China’s economy.First of all, the development of the real estate industry has promoted the process of urbanization.At the beginning of China’s housing commodity housing reform in 1998, China’s urbanization rate was only 33.35%, but by 2020, China’s urbanization rate has reached 63.89%, nearly doubling in just 22 years.This is inseparable from the rapid development of the real estate industry, because only the rapid development of the real estate industry, the city can continue to expand.On the one hand, the rapid development of the real estate industry can provide housing for the population moving from rural to urban areas and meet their housing needs.On the other hand, it also provides a large amount of fiscal revenue to local governments, and various urban infrastructure has been improved.Secondly, it has to be said that the rapid development of the real estate industry in the past 20 years has promoted the rapid development of China’s economy.According to data released by the central bank, China’s M2 scale was only 13.5 trillion yuan in 2000, but by October 2020, it had reached 233 trillion yuan.The reason why M2 grows so fast is inseparable from the rapid development of the real estate industry. According to some experts, during the period of rapid development of China’s real estate industry, every 1 YUAN invested in the real estate industry can drive 8.2 yuan of GDP growth.In addition, with the rapid development of the real estate industry, the housing price rises rapidly, which rapidly drives residents’ consumption.Nowadays housing prices are so high that many ordinary people have to empty their family savings and bear 30-year mortgage in order to buy a house.The consumption habit of Chinese residents has also changed from saving money in the past to consuming in advance, and consumption is a very important factor to drive the economic development of a country.Then some people say that since the real estate industry is so important to economic development, how can it now stand in the opposite of China’s economic development, we need to make a choice between protecting the property market and protecting the economy?Because with the excessive development of the real estate industry, has affected the normal development of China’s economy.First of all, the housing price of Our country has been out of line with the income of ordinary people, many families have to choose to downgrade consumption in order to buy a house and scrape together the down payment to pay off the mortgage.According to data released by the Central bank, by the end of 2021, the amount of housing loans for Chinese residents had reached 52.2 trillion yuan, and 70 percent of urban families were burdened with huge mortgages.Today, the number of urban households in China is close to 298 million, which means that the average debt of urban households in China has reached 250,000 yuan.This has greatly weakened the consumption power of Chinese residents. According to data released by Chinese universities, the consumption level of Chinese residents is only 39 percent, far lower than the 75 to 85 percent of some western developed countries, and even lower than the 66 percent of India.The decline in the consumption level of ordinary people has affected the development of other industries.For example, when ordinary people pay off their mortgage before they earn money, there is no more money to buy clothes, so the clothing industry will not develop.Secondly, although the development of the real estate industry in the past provided local governments with a large amount of funds for urban development, it also caused some local governments to rely too much on “land transfer fees” for fiscal revenue.According to statistics released by the president of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, more than 50 percent of Chinese cities rely more than 60 percent on land finance.Urban development depends too much on land, which will cause the instability of urban economic development and real estate industry.With the advancement of urbanization in China, the speed of urbanization development will inevitably continue to slow down, and cities will no longer expand outward.In addition, land resources are not renewable resources, relying on the transfer of land to develop the city is bound to be unsustainable.As a result, some cities have come to a standstill as the golden age of real estate has passed.For example, hegang, Fuxin, Yumen and other cities reported in the news before, and there will be more and more such cities in the future.Finally, with the excessive development of the real estate industry, the problem of excess housing resources in China has been quite serious. There are more and more empty houses, and the liquidity of second-hand houses is getting worse and worse.It can be said that if the state does not regulate, the bubble in the real estate industry will only get bigger and bigger.For these problems, in fact, the country has already begun to solve, since the 2016 housing price surge, China has put forward the policy concept of “housing not speculation”.In the past two years, regulation policies have become increasingly tight, from the “three red lines” in 2020 and last year’s “loan restrictions”, to strict checks on illegal funds flowing into the property market and so on.Under the double whammy of macro-control and outbreak, in the second half of last year, China’s housing market began to encounter cold, in October last year, “Kim nine silver ten” hasn’t been in the past, China’s top 70 city house prices fell the city reached 52, accounted for more than 7, the city of second-hand housing prices fell to 64, accounting for more than 9,It can be said that there has been a “general decline” in China’s housing prices.In addition, developers in many cities are dumping property at low prices, so many local governments have had to introduce “limits” to stabilize the real estate market.Property market cold, protect the property market or protect the economy?Give the answer to this question, in fact, countries have already, at last year’s December 8 ~ 10, the central economic work conference, meeting again insisted that the house is used to live in, not used to fry, and expected to guide, to explore new development model, insist on hire purchase, speed up the development of promoting the construction of affordable housing rental market,We will support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, and adopt urban policies to promote a virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.In addition, the Central bank issued a statement on December 6 last year: In order to support the development of the real economy and promote the steady reduction of comprehensive financing costs, the People’s Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021, releasing long-term funds of about 1.2 trillion yuan.In this regard, many developers announced a positive property market, that the interest rate cut or to the real estate industry “save the market”.In fact, on December 7, the Central Media Economic Daily published the article “What signal will be sent by the RRR cut?”Interpretation: Some market participants believe that the relaxation of the conditions for the transfer of land for the third round of centralized land supply and the increase of loans to real estate enterprises, coupled with the release of the RRR reduction signal, indicating that the macro policy will move toward easing.This view is a relatively simple understanding of macro policy, easy to cause misreading.It can be seen that whether the Central Economic Work Conference once again mentioned “housing not speculation” or the central bank’s interest rate cut is still aimed at “protecting the economy” and supporting the development of the real economy, rather than “protecting the property market” as some people interpret it.What do you think about that?Feel free to leave a comment in the comments section.